Shelby, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

077
FXUS65 KTFX 061130
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
530 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...

Upper level ridging will keep us warm and dry through most of this
week, with temperatures closer to what you would expect in early
September instead of early October. A dry cold front will push
through Wednesday night or Thursday, bringing temperatures closer
to average to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Above average temperatures continue through most of the next
week

-No appreciable precipitation chances until the weekend

Short term (through Tuesday)... Expect warm and fairly tranquil
weather across North Central and Southwestern Montana today as
upper level ridging continues to build across the Western CONUS.
With this ridge in place, expect highs to feel more like early
September than early October, with highs in the mid 70s for most
lower elevation locations. Temperatures will continue to gradually
climb through Tuesday, with many locations seeing upper 70s to
low 80s by Tuesday afternoon. Aside from the unseasonable warmth,
the only other weather concern will be the return of some wildfire
smoke from fires in Idaho, with the worst of the smoke being in
Southwestern Montana.

Extended (Wednesday through next Sunday)... The extended term
does not look all that different from the short term, as upper
level ridging will continue to remain anchored over the Western
CONUS through the end of the week, though a weak surface cold
front will push through Wednesday night, bringing temperatures
down 5-10 degrees for Thursday, with additional cold air arriving
for Friday and Saturday as cooler air continues to work in from
the north.

In addition to cooler air continuing to work into the area on
Saturday, an approaching upper level trough from the Pacific will
bring some moisture to the area, bringing at least some moisture
to portions of the area. While it does not look significant, this
forecaster doubts that many here will complain about getting some
needed rainfall after a prolonged dry spell. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
06/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals during this TAF period
excluding the KWYS, KBZN, KHLN, and KEKS terminals. There will be
light and variable winds at all terminals except for the KCTB
terminal with scattered to few high-level clouds due to an upper-
level ridge moving over the area. Smoke will intermittently reduce
visibility to MVFR levels at the KWYS, KEKS, KBZN, and KHLN
terminals during the middle of this TAF period. Smoke will also be
around the KGTF and KLWT terminals during the middle through the end
of this TAF period but reductions in visibility to MVFR levels are
not expected. Winds at the KCTB terminal will gust up to 18kts
during the middle of this TAF period. -IG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  46  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  71  40  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  76  42  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  73  38  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  65  26  68  27 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  73  38  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  71  41  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  72  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls